Τα "κατορθώματα" και η "αξιοπιστία" του αντίστοιχου Βρετανού Τσιόδρα

Τα "κατορθώματα" και η "αξιοπιστία" του αντίστοιχου Βρετανού Τσιόδρα, που έπεισε τον Boris Johnson να επιβάλει μαζική καραντίνα στην Βρετανία.

"...it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.

He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.

And separately he also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans.

To date there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

A 2011 paper, Destructive Tension: mathematics versus experience – the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, found that the government ordered the destruction of millions of animals because of “severely flawed” modelling."

Neil Ferguson, the scientist who convinced Boris Johnson of UK coronavirus lockdown, criticised in past for flawed research

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

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Dr Paul Kitching - lead author of Use and abuse of mathematical models, and the former chief veterinarian of Canada’s British Columbia province - raised fears over the modelling being done on coronavirus. “The basic principles on modelling described in our paper apply to this Covid-19 crisis as much as they did to the FMD outbreak.

“In view of the low numbers of Covid-19 tests being reported as carried out in affected countries, it is difficult to understand what informs the current models. In particular the transmission rate. How many mild and subclinical infections are occurring?”

“The model driven policy of FMD control resulted in tragedy. Vast numbers of animals were slaughtered without reason. Untold human and animal suffering was the result - not to mention the financial consequences.”

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom.

https://doc.oie.int/seam/resource/directMedia/76bUEVqDfeg2tqKWq98nRWsnxkc0T3SF?binaryFileId=9568&cid=1716