A frozen conflict on the Ukrainian front is more likely than a lasting peace

 

The lamenting European politicians complain that the United States did not include them in the first round of negotiations with Russia that took place in Saudi Arabia. Zelensky uses the same refrain.

But for three years, they did not want negotiations with Russia, and Zelensky even signed a law prohibiting negotiations with the Russian government. Moreover, the majority of European politicians wanted the war to continue until the end, and they had severed all communication bridges with Russian diplomacy.

Therefore, there is no substantial reason for protest from European governments. It is as if they imply that all the governments of the world should follow the european approach. They believe that their own stance should bind all future governments of all countries eternally.

The delirious behavior of EU officials shows that they have become disconnected from reality.

They think they control the political developments, at a time when major powers outside of Europe are indifferent to their opinions.

Regarding the absurdities about America's 'betrayal' of Ukraine, with references to the Munich Conference of 1938, relative to Chamberlain’s stance toward Czechoslovakia; Churchill did the same with Greece in 1940 and Poland in 1944.

Besides, why should it be considered that the U.S. is 'betraying' Ukraine? All Western officials clearly stated that they were making a good investment in the war in Ukraine, using the Ukrainian people as proxy against Russia.

Ukrainian officials gladly accepted the role of proxy in the war against Russia. So where is the oddity?

Some Western investors have decided to withdraw their funds from this specific speculative investment because they want to invest them elsewhere, potentially in Southeast Asia. They have that right, like all investors. Neither Zelensky nor the EU will deny it to them.

Nevertheless, our assessment is that the war will continue because the root causes that led to the conflict have not been eliminated. A cessation in the form of a frozen conflict is more likely than a lasting peace.

In the event that Ukraine's EU membership is accepted, European troops will be immediately deployed to Ukraine, without NATO's umbrella, in the form of peacekeeping forces. Essentially, this will be a military expansion of the West to the East under a different name. Following this, there will be a request for Armenia and Georgia to join the EU, with the same pretext—that they will not join NATO but only the EU.

And then, a new war will break out in the Caucasus, whether Russia wants it or not. Even if Russia does not participate in such a war, Azerbaijan considers French military support for Armenia a casus belli. The continuation of the war, painful as it is for all parties, on the one hand weakens both camps, and on the other prevents the ignition of other fronts by the West due to a lack of necessary resources.

Greece's strategic goal is the dissolution of NATO and the EU, not the salvation of Ukraine.